CAIA Member Poll

We're pleased to introduce a new series to our website, the CAIA Member Poll. Starting with an April 2010 poll on Liquidity Risk, each month we ask CAIA members for their thoughts on specific topics in the AI industry. The results of these polls are intended to share the insights of CAIA members and to provoke discussion in our CAIA forum.

Interested in knowing what CAIA members think of a particular topic? Submit a suggestion for a future CAIA Member Poll to member@caia.org.

There are no active polls at this time

Check back here each month to see the previous month's poll.

May 2011

Erik Benrud, Ph.D., CAIA, author of the May Member Poll, earned his CAIA Charter in October 2008. He is an active member of the Exam Working Group and a faculty member at Drexel University.

0.5 / 5
1%
0.5 / 10
6%
1 / 10
26%
1 / 15
25%
1.5 / 15
42%

Comments

HF fees

What about 2/20?

April 2011

Bernardo Vizcaino, CAIA, is the author of the April Member Poll. When he helped to launch Opalesque Islamic Finance Intelligence (OIFI) in collaboration with Opalesque, he was featured in the July 2009 Smart Moves. He has been a CAIA member since November 2008.

Alternative investments have had to contend - at different times of their lifecycle - with sometimes hostile regulatory environments, reticent political support, harsh media treatment, and a skeptic public. Given the initial opacity of the industry and the sometimes disbanded nature of its participants, it seems that this predicament is being repeated in the Islamic finance industry.

Internal Governance: strengthening its framework from within along the lines of a "hedge funds code of conduct."
6%
External Advocacy: through the development of an "industry association" along the lines of the CAIA Association.
7%
Media Campaign: enhancing information channels and debunking the negative perceptions of this relatively new industry.
10%
Educational Component: staff training, industry certifications and the overall "professionalisation" of its practitioners.
7%
A Combined Approach (i.e. all of the above).
71%

Comments

Islamic finance/investment is a business growth area for CAIA

I believe incorporating Islamic Finance/investment modules in CAIA curriculum will definitely represent an edge to CAIA certification and will attract huge demand from Islamic finance professionals on the program and will also ensure a huge demand from Islamic Financial/banking institutions over CAIA charter holders. Islamic finance/investment is growing very fast and there is a huge need from both practioners to better understand and innovate non-conventional investment/financial products, and from employers to find the right calibre with the professional understanding of the Islamic "i.e Non-conventional" investment products.

Kind regards,

Amr Abol-Enein, CAIA, FRM

March 2011

Cédric Spahr, CAIA, is the author of the March Member Poll. A CAIA member since November 2007, he recently gave a presentation on "How to Apply Behavioral Finance Insights to Investment Management" at a CAIA Switzerland Chapter event.

Precious metals, as excessive monetary creation by major central banks concerns investors with monetary debasement
22%
Oil, as global growth remains in an uptrend and energy demand is strong
23%
Industrial metals like copper, reflecting strong demand from China and other emerging markets
16%
Agricultural commodities, fueled by strong demand in emerging countries, crop failures and quantitative easing
38%

January 2011

Michael Cimmino, CAIA, is the author of the January Member Poll. He is also featured in this month’s Smart Moves.

It was recently revealed that household debt as a percentage of disposable income in Canada surpassed the United States for the first time in more than a decade. This increase also coincides with a rise in the average mortgage amount for a Canadian household. After receiving much praise for successfully navigating the recent financial crisis, do you think Canada will follow in the steps of the United States and other peripheral European countries?

Yes. The increase in interest rates (3 times since June 1) will only increase the cost of mortgage servicing.
12%
No. The government will continue to take preemptive steps, such as strengthening rules on refinancing and down payments.
35%
Yes. The government’s tightening of rules for government-guaranteed mortgages will force borrowers into the private marketplace.
13%
No. Canada will avert a housing crisis and benefit from a general economic recovery in the United States.
41%

December 2010

Daniel Capocci, CAIA, the author of the December Member Poll, was the inspiration behind the forecast polls we began last month. He is also featured in this month’s Smart Moves.

Until early 2000, the bulk of the hedge fund industry assets was coming from individuals through direct investments into offshore and unregulated funds. After that the FoFs industry started to emerge. The main difference was that a fee was paid by investors to professional selectors to select the right funds to invest in and to create a diversified portfolio.

A few years later, managed accounts platform started to gain importance enabling allocators to invest into hedge funds without having a complete dedicated hedge fund due diligence team (qualitative and quantitative due diligence but also operational checks).

Finally, regulated so-called absolute return funds started to emerge. Then, 2008 happened. We are starting a new game and everything may stay the same or change.

Fund of funds
30%
Managed accounts
29%
Direct investment in offshore funds
20%
Direct investment in onshore funds (UCITS III and others)
18%
Other
3%

November 2010

240 members responded to last month’s poll predicting U.S. Federal Reserve asset purchases by 2011: the clear majority (61%) answered $100 Billion - $1 Trillion.

During the last quarter of the year we will feature a series of forecast polls.  This month, Kristaps Licis, Senior Associate Director of Exams, CAIA Association, asks about the production of green technology in 2015.

Rare earth metals (Neodymium, Lanthanum, Ytterbium, Promethium, etc., 17 in total) are crucial ingredients for modern green energy technologies such as electric cars and wind turbines. Currently, Peoples Republic of China controls around 97% of the world’s supply of rare earth metals. In 2009 and 2010, China cut rare earth metal export quota by 20% each year. Further quota cuts are expected in 2011 and 2012. Green energy manufacturers argue that soon, their only option will be to move their operations into mainland China.

100%
0%
75%
13%
50%
33%
25%
53%

October 2010

Mick Swartz, CAIA, the author of the October CAIA Member Poll, has been a CAIA member since 2008. He is a committee member of the CAIA Southern California emerging chapter.

None or Less than $100 Billion
8%
$100 Billion - $1 Trillion
61%
$1 Trillion - $4 Trillion
29%
More than $4 Trillion
3%

September 2010

Sergio Miguez Martin, CAIA, the author of the September CAIA Member Poll, has been a CAIA member since 2006. He is a Co-Chair of the Iberia Chapter.

Markets’ current focus on the possibility of a "double-dip" for the US economy is increasingly causing the main financial assets to behave erratically throughout this year.

Yes, the likelihood is significant (in excess of 40%) and financial assets will deteriorate further
33%
Yes, a double dip will take place but markets have already discounted a great deal of it
12%
No, a double dip will not happen but markets will probably go on discounting an event like that for quite some time
39%
No, current deceleration is normal after a first more explosive rebound in growth coming from a recessionary period
16%

August 2010

Patrick Oberhaensli, CAIA, the author of the August CAIA Member Poll, has been a CAIA member since 2005. He has been actively involved in the CAIA Switzerland Chapter, and is currently a Chapter Executive.

Equity Long/Short
47%
CTAs
12%
Global macro
25%
Convertible arbitrage
2%
Managed futures
12%
Other
3%

July 2010

Hamad M Ali Hasan, CAIA, is the author of the July CAIA Member Poll. He is the first CAIA member to contribute a poll question and response set.

Yes, the Euro will survive without a common fiscal policy
36%
Yes, but only with a common fiscal policy
36%
Yes, if the over-indebted countries drop out of the Euro
20%
No, the Euro cannot survive
9%

June 2010

Measuring and managing liquidity risk have become important factors in the portfolio construction and asset allocation process. Even investors with the longest time horizon, such as pension funds and endowments, have come to realize that liquidity risk can have a devastating impact on the long-term performance of their portfolios. As a result, investors are reevaluating the costs and benefits of allocating to illiquid investments; in general demanding a higher level of benefits (e.g. return, diversification) in order to justify increased allocation to such products.

Earned "carried interest" will be taxed as regular income but not if the PE firm is sold.
14%
Earned "carried interest" will be taxed as regular income whether or not the PE firm is sold.
38%
Tax rate on earned "carried interest" will be somewhere between capital gains and regular income (the "blended tax rate").
48%
Nothing will happen.
0%

May 2010

Good - it will increase HF opportunity set by decreasing number of players
45%
Neutral – no impact
20%
Bad – it will eliminate a large source of HF investment capital
34%

April 2010

Measuring and managing liquidity risk have become important factors in the portfolio construction and asset allocation process. Even investors with the longest time horizon, such as pension funds and endowments, have come to realize that liquidity risk can have a devastating impact on the long-term performance of their portfolios. As a result, investors are reevaluating the costs and benefits of allocating to illiquid investments; in general demanding a higher level of benefits (e.g. return, diversification) in order to justify increased allocation to such products.

None at all
13%
Modest adjustments, at the margin only
46%
Significant adjustments across majority of holdings
15%
Fundamental shift to more liquid strategies based upon a re-evaluation of asset allocation policy
26%