The 2007 Bunker Portfolio

By Ben Steverman
Publication: 
Business Week (excerpt)
Date: 
August 2, 2007

 

No one really knows where the stock market is going. Is the late-July plunge in stock indexes a momentary blip, or a sign of worse things to come? Will credit troubles and the ever-lower housing market do in the rest of the economy?

One thing is clear: Markets have entered a period of wild volatility. Indexes hit record highs and a week later fell almost 4% in two days.

"That is a sign the market is changing," says Hossein Kazemi, finance professor at the University of Massachusetts at Amherst. "There is a divergence of opinion" among investors, he says.

Whatever happens, here are five ways to help your hard-earned cash survive downturns and disruptions. We start with the most conservative-some might say boring- strategies and move on to riskier ways to prosper if things get dire.

1. Cash

If you're really worried, "there is no shame in being in cash," Kazemi says. With cash you'll lose out on big returns, but you won't lose any of your principal.

Advisors recommend that you have at least some of your portfolio in cash at all times. Cash worth at least three or four months of expenses can help out mightily in an emergency.

Kazemi suggests the extremely cautious investor might wait on the sidelines in cash until October, when the ride might be a little less wild.

2. Bonds

The safest investment out there may be government bonds. Yes, prices can fall, but you're guaranteed a certain return if you hold the bonds until maturity. TIPS bonds are guaranteed to beat inflation, which can sap your portfolio's buying power. If things get bad, an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve might boost bond prices.

3. International funds

Most advisors say international investments are part of any diversified portfolio. Much of the world's economic growth is expected to come from outside the U.S. For risk-averse investors, international exposure lets you avoid the impact of disruptions in the U.S.

However, the extent to which investments correlate can change over time. Signs are increasing that world economies and stocks are becoming more and more connected as it gets easier to invest across borders. In late July, credit worries in the U.S. caused markets all around the world to fall at once. "Over time, they're going to run in tandem," says Brent Little, managing partner of Texas-based Odyssey Wealth Management.

4. Commodities


The booming global economy can't seem to get enough oil, metal, and other commodities. That could keep commodity prices high even if markets fall. Commodities also should hold value even if the dollar continues to fall or inflation heats up, Kazemi says.

Until recently, commodity investing for the small investor wasn't easy. But a variety of new ETFs offer investors inexpensive ways to get commodity exposure. Advisors recommend spreading your money across various commodities.

5. Alternative investments

Hedge funds were originally created just for this purpose: to be hedges against declines in other assets, like stocks. Thus, many private equity and hedge funds consciously try to move independently of equity markets, and often they succeed.

Investors, however, will need a high net worth to invest in hedge funds. It's risky, so you don't want to put all your eggs in one basket. "Diversification in the case of hedge funds is especially important," says Kazemi, who is [Academic Liaison] to the not-for-profit Chartered Alternative Investment Analyst Assn. "You don't want to invest in a single manager."

Again, caution is needed here. This sort of investing requires a lot of skill and research. Many hedge fund strategies exist, some much more risky than others. And bearish mutual funds will provide mediocre results in a rising market.

The bottom line? Most financial advisors recommend against market timing, i.e., trying to bet exactly when the market has hit its peak. You'll probably be wrong.

A better strategy, they say, is to keep your portfolio diversified, spread among several asset classes from the safe to the risky. Then you'll be ready for almost anything.