By Andre Costa, CAIA and Oswaldo Zapata, PhD
As interest in quantum technologies continues to grow among policymakers, institutional investors, and asset managers, it is increasingly important for professional bodies such as the CAIA Association to provide balanced and disciplined education on the subject. This article is the third installment in our series and focuses on the investment implications of quantum technologies, with particular attention to potential opportunities, risks, and time horizons. In earlier pieces, we introduced the basic principles of quantum computing for finance professionals and reviewed selected quantum algorithms being explored for financial applications, including portfolio optimization and machine learning.
The Quantum Investing Landscape
From an investment perspective, a key distinction must be made at the outset between private-market and public-market exposure. Private investments—typically through venture capital or growth equity—are capital-intensive, highly illiquid, and require a deep understanding of both technological and execution risks. While a detailed analysis of private quantum investments is beyond the scope of this article, we instead focus on quantum exposure through public markets, which is more accessible to a broader range of investment professionals.
Like many emerging technologies, the quantum sector exhibits characteristics familiar to CAIA members: high uncertainty around commercialization timelines, limited near-term cash flows, valuation dispersion driven by expectations rather than fundamentals, and elevated volatility. A common pitfall is to overemphasize technical performance metrics—such as qubit counts or gate fidelities—that are frequently highlighted by quantum companies but have limited direct relevance for near-term revenue generation. From an investment standpoint, the more material questions concern business-model viability, competitive positioning, and the credibility of commercialization pathways.
Volatility in quantum-related equities has been pronounced. Alongside diversified technology firms with quantum exposure—such as Alphabet and IBM—there exists a small group of publicly traded pure-play quantum companies, including D-Wave, Rigetti, IonQ, and Quantum Computing Inc. Despite their differing technological approaches, these firms share a common structural feature: according to prevailing expert consensus, large-scale quantum computers capable of delivering consistent and economically meaningful advantages are unlikely to emerge before the end of the decade. For investors, this implies that stable cash flows and predictable risk-adjusted returns directly attributable to quantum computing remain a long-dated prospect.
That said, shorter-term developments are relevant. Many companies are pursuing hybrid quantum–classical approaches, in which limited quantum components are integrated into classical workflows. While these solutions have not yet demonstrated clear and repeatable quantum advantage, they may represent early steps toward optionality rather than immediate alpha generation. In parallel, quantum-inspired algorithms—classical methods informed by quantum concepts—are already being deployed. Although these approaches do not rely on quantum hardware, they illustrate how innovation in computational techniques can precede full technological adoption, a pattern familiar from other deep-technology cycles.
As capital allocation to the sector increases, larger players are increasingly adopting platform-based strategies, spanning hardware development, software tools, and cloud-based access. In addition, several firms are expanding into adjacent quantum-related domains. IBM, for example, combines investments in superconducting quantum processors with post-quantum cybersecurity offerings; IonQ has broadened its scope beyond quantum computing into networking and sensing; and D-Wave, historically focused on quantum annealing, has taken steps to complement its technology stack. These developments increase both strategic optionality and analytical complexity for investors.
A Diversified Quantum Portfolio
The strategic shift observed among these leading companies—moving from a narrow focus on hardware toward a broader portfolio that includes post-quantum cybersecurity and quantum sensing—can be understood as an effort to offer investors a more robust and diversified exposure to the quantum ecosystem. This internal diversification allows companies to span multiple investment horizons, ranging from near-term revenue opportunities to longer-term, high-optionality positions associated with fault-tolerant quantum computing. Given the extended timeline of hardware development, many firms have complemented their core research by incorporating technologies with commercial impact.
Post-quantum cryptography (PQC) is particularly attractive from an investment perspective because it is already technologically mature and can be deployed on existing classical infrastructure. PQC solutions are designed to protect sensitive data against future quantum-enabled attacks and are currently being adopted across sectors where information security is critical, including government, defense, and finance. Importantly, these technologies do not require quantum hardware to be implemented, which lowers adoption barriers. Furthermore, growing awareness of security risks has led regulatory bodies to recommend or mandate the transition to quantum-resistant protocols, creating a clear market pull for these services.
Quantum sensing represents a different, but similarly compelling, opportunity. Unlike PQC, quantum sensing is inherently a hardware-based quantum technology, relying on the precise measurement of physical quantities such as gravity or magnetic fields. Decades of foundational research have brought many of these applications to a high level of maturity, and several are already being commercialized in areas such as navigation, medical imaging, and geophysics. As a result, some sensing companies are already generating revenues. While the number of publicly listed firms in this space remains limited, a substantial portion of the opportunity set is currently accessible through private markets, making it a noteworthy segment for investors seeking earlier monetization within the broader quantum ecosystem.
Strategic Outlook
For alternative investment professionals, the central challenge is therefore one of disciplined assessment under uncertainty. As with other frontier technologies, distinguishing between long-term optionality and near-term investability is critical. The key takeaway is not whether quantum technologies may become transformative—this is already well understood—but rather how to evaluate timing risk, execution risk, valuation risk, and narrative risk in a market that remains highly sensitive to expectations. Maintaining this perspective will be essential as quantum technologies continue to evolve and attract investor capital.
About the Contributor
André Costa, CAIA & Oswaldo Zapata, PhD - Founders of the Quantum Finance Boardroom - TQFB.
Learn more about CAIA Association and how to become part of a professional network that is shaping the future of investing, by visiting https://caia.org/
“Quantum Computing: An Introduction,” https://caia.org/blog/2025/10/06/quantum-computing-introduction
“Quantum Computing: Algorithms for Investors,” https://caia.org/blog/2025/10/14/quantum-computing-algorithms-investors